New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a strong double-digit lead over potential Republican rivals U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in the race for governor next year, while slightly improving her favorability rating, according to a Siena University poll of registered voters released Tuesday.
The poll found Hochul with a 19-point lead over Stefanik and a 25-point advantage against Blakeman. Both Republican candidates show similar levels of undecided voters. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Hochul enjoys support from more than three-quarters of Democrats, while Stefanik leads among Republicans 82-7% and Blakeman 73-7%. Among independent voters, Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points and Stefanik by seven. Hochul also leads her Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, by 43 points.
Hochul’s favorability rating stands at 43-41%, slightly improved from 43-45% in November, with a job approval rating up four points from the prior month. Greenberg said that although Hochul’s rating remains below 50%, it is one of only three positive ratings she has recorded this year. The poll also showed that Stefanik is largely unknown to over 40% of voters, while Blakeman and Delgado remain unfamiliar to more than two-thirds of the electorate, including a majority within their own parties.
On key issues such as making life more affordable, maintaining public safety, and ensuring quality healthcare, voters largely divide along party lines. Hochul is seen as stronger on healthcare access and public safety, while neither she nor Stefanik is widely believed capable of addressing affordability concerns. Stefanik is noted for decisiveness, while Hochul scores well on honesty, decisiveness, and empathy, though many voters find her uninspiring.
The poll also found broad support for universal child care for infants through pre-K funded by taxes on households earning more than $1 million, with two-thirds of voters statewide in favor. Support is strongest among Democrats, with independents backing it two-to-one and a slight majority of Republicans opposing it.
In New York City politics, voters’ favorability toward incoming Mayor Zohran Mamdani is rising. Statewide, he holds a 46-31% favorability rating, up from 40-40% last month, and is viewed favorably by 61-23% of New Yorkers in the city. Nearly half of statewide voters think his election will be good for the city. Two-thirds of Democrats across the state view Mamdani positively, while independent voters have shifted slightly in his favor since November. Outside New York City, voters’ opinions are now close to even.
The poll also reported that voters of all political affiliations believe Mamdani and President Donald Trump will not work together to improve quality of life. Trump’s favorability among New York voters stands at 32-62%, down slightly from November, with his job approval rating at 34-62%. A majority of voters feel the Trump administration has gone too far on issues such as ICE operations in U.S. cities, tariffs, prosecuting political opponents, and military actions near Venezuela. Democrats and independents were particularly critical, while Republicans expressed differing views.
The Siena poll surveyed 801 registered New York voters from Dec. 8-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.